Scottish Multi-Agency Strategic Threat Assessment

Protecting vulnerable people

Online child sexual abuse remains a high threat. The threat picture includes the use of forums, chat rooms and applications that enable perpetrators to distribute indecent images of children (IIOC).

Recorded crime relating to online child sexual abuse confirms the most common offences
as cause or coerce to see/hear sexual images/content, communicating indecently with a child and possession/distribution of IIOC. Snapchat is the social media platform used in the majority of crimes.

Human trafficking investigations focus on sexual, labour and criminal exploitation, and cross local, regional, national and international borders. The majority of commercial sexual exploitation
is cyber enabled, with advertising through adult services websites. Labour exploitation predominantly involves farming, fishing and seafood companies. Criminal exploitation primarily relates to drug criminality such as cannabis cultivators.

Organised Immigration Crime largely relates to immigration facilitation, employment of illegal workers and false documentation.

Tackling crime in the digital age

Cybercrime presents a persisting and evolving threat. Ransomware is the most significant
cybercrime threat and attacks are typically directed towards businesses and organisations.

Fraud has continued to increase significantly in the last year. Cyber-fraud is the most common
form of financial crime where the perpetrator impersonates a trusted organisation to exploit
the victim. Serious Organised Crime Groups (SOCGs) commonly undertake social engineering to commit fraud, large-scale fraudulent schemes, excise duty evasion and credit card fraud.

Cryptocurrency investment fraud is an ongoing concern. Fiscal fraud is prevalent in Scotland, particularly tobacco and alcohol fraud.

Working with communities

The majority of homicides committed in Scotland occur indoors, most commonly within residential dwellings involving perpetrators known to the victim. The most common method of killing is stabbing with a knife or sharp instrument.

Perpetrators are commonly males aged 18 to 34 years. The presence of alcohol is a notable factor in acts of homicide. This, alongside unregulated environments and easy access to weapons
within such settings, pose the greatest risk of fatal violence.

An upward trend in female victim homicides is recorded in the last year. In the majority of cases, the female victim was killed by a partner or family member. Violence was most commonly perpetrated by a male. In most cases the female victim was murdered indoors in a
residential setting.

The detection rate for homicide in Scotland remains high. The risk posed by Serious Organised Crime
Group (SOCG) related violence remains high.

Violent incidents relate to long running feuds between rival families, personal grievances and retribution for perceived disrespect or previous violent acts.

The demand for firearms relates mostly to SOCG drug activity and violence/feuds. Despite robust
police disruption tactics, enforcement action and firearms seizures, SOCGs continue to have access to firearms.

Drug trafficking is the largest criminal market in Scotland where SOCGs are involved in the production, procurement and distribution of illegal drugs. Cocaine, cannabis and heroin are the most commonly trafficked commodities. SOCGs continue to manufacture illicit benzodiazepine pills.

Opiates/opioids and benzodiazepines are present in a high number of drug related deaths. Poly drug use is prevalent.

The north of Scotland is disproportionately impacted by county lines, with three-quarters of county lines active across Aberdeen city, Aberdeenshire and Moray. These groups are mainly Merseyside-based. County lines groups primarily deal in heroin and crack cocaine.

Organised Acquisitive Crime presents a considerable threat and is likely to become more prevalent given the post-pandemic economic landscape. The current threat picture includes cash in transit robberies, attacks of automated teller machines, high value impersonation fraud, housebreaking and theft of motor vehicles.

Mobile SOCGs are prevalent where close engagement with law enforcement operating in other jurisdictions is crucial in the identification and disruption of the networks.

The most significant environmental threat from criminal activity is within the waste management sector.

This includes illegal waste disposal and cross border waste crime. The threat from illicit trade includes intellectual property crime, illicit trade of puppies and food crime. Illicit trade of counterfeit goods is moving increasingly online. Fraudulent activity within the food supply chain includes red meat traceability, illegally harvested shellfish, quality of fish product, illegal food supplements and the sale of counterfeit alcohol.

Cross cutting threat enablers

Abuse of the Common Travel Area presents a significant vulnerability. The ports of Loch Ryan and Cairnryan continue to detect frequent cases of immigration abuse and drugs seizures.

The criminal use of technology to facilitate Serious Organised Crime (SOC) continues to evolve and is a key enabler across all areas of SOC. SOCGs are increasingly using cryptocurrency to transfer, invest and launder
criminal funds, purchase controlled drugs online and receive payment from customers.

SOCGs are involved in business exploitation with the top five business sectors identified as property, transport, catering, service/retail and recreation.

In the prison estate, population management, separation of rival groups and managing the potential escalation in violence linked to community based feuds is becoming increasingly complex.

About this product

This report aims to provide a collaborative multi-agency strategic threat assessment to present a comprehensive picture of the scale and nature of the threat from SOC, significant vulnerabilities and emerging threats.

The product has been produced in close collaboration with 18 law enforcement partners to present a comprehensive analysis of the threats facing us.

This document is classified as OFFICIAL and all content is lifted from the Scottish Multi-agency Strategic Threat Assessment 2022 Overview OFFICIAL SENSITIVE POLICE AND PARTNERS product which is for law enforcement only.

The latest Scottish Multi-Agency Strategic Threat Assessment document is also available as a pdf.